{"id":894,"date":"2018-11-20T06:01:12","date_gmt":"2018-11-20T06:01:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/neonmetin.info\/buletin\/?p=894"},"modified":"2018-11-20T06:01:12","modified_gmt":"2018-11-20T06:01:12","slug":"oinsa-tl-bele-sukat-oportunidade-hosi-sosa-asoens-conoco-philips-nian-iha-jv-sunrise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/neonmetin.info\/buletin\/2018\/11\/20\/oinsa-tl-bele-sukat-oportunidade-hosi-sosa-asoens-conoco-philips-nian-iha-jv-sunrise\/","title":{"rendered":"Oinsa TL Bele Sukat Oportunidade Hosi Sosa Asoens Conoco Philips Nian iha JV Sunrise?"},"content":{"rendered":"

By\u00a0Juvinal Dias*<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Analiza ida ne\u2019e nud\u00e1r kontribuisaun idea balu ba publiku kona-ba planu Governu nian hodi sosa asoens Conoco Philips nian iha Joint Venture Sunrise nian hamutuk 30%. No espera katak opiniaun ne\u2019e bele ajuda p\u00fabliku hodi bele iha ko\u00f1esimentu kona-ba oportunidade no risku sira hosi planu ida ne\u2019e ba interese Timor-Leste nian.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Atu alkansa objetivu ida ne\u2019e, foin dadauk ne\u2019e Parlamentu Nasional aprova ona primeira alterasaun ba Lei das Atividades Petroliferas, espesialmente artigu 22 kona-ba partisipasaun estadu nian iha atividade petroliferas ruma, hodi inklui \u201coutras pessas coletivas publicas\u201d nudar mos benefisiariu hosi Artigu 22 ida ne\u2019e. Maske ita hatene katak partisipasaun estadu liu hosi sosa asoens Conoco Philips nian iha Joint Venture Sunrise ne\u2019e buat ketak ida direitu estadu nian hodi sai nain ba asoens 20% depois kompa\u00f1ia operador deklara kampu ruma komersi\u00e1l ona.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Aleinde alterasaun ba lei, Governu mos hatama ona montante $350 miloens atu sosa asoens ne\u2019e iha ona proposta Orsamentu Jeral Estadu 2019 nian iha kategoria transfer\u00e9nsia publika iha Ministeriu Petroleu no Rekursu Minerais.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nune\u2019e, ho planu ida ne\u2019e, Core Group Transparensia-Timor-Leste (CGT-TL) hakarak fahe perspetiva sira balu kona-ba planu sosa asones ne\u2019e hanesan tuir mai ne\u2019e:<\/p>\n

Pasu ba Timor-Leste hodi involve ba foti desizaun ba futuru Sunrise<\/p>\n

Ita hotu hatene katak dezde tinan barak nia laran Timor-Leste prefere atu prosesa kampu gas Greater Sunrise nian iha rai maran Timor-Leste nian. Dezde tinan balu liu ba, Timor-Leste aloka ona osan lubuk ona atu harii supply base iha Suai, auto-estrada hodi liga Suai-Beaco, kompensasaun ba rai komunidade lubuk iha Suai, Betano no fatin balu tan atu viabiliza projetu Tasi Mane ida ne\u2019eb\u00e9 sei uza ba gas no kondensadu hosi Greater Sunrise.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Maske nune\u2019e, prefer\u00e9nsia ba konseitu dezenvolvimentu ne\u2019e la’os ida de\u2019it, maib\u00e9 iha tolu kedas. Ida mak dada mai Timor-Leste no rua seluk mak atu dada kadoras Greater Sunrise nian ba junta ho kadoras Bayu Undan nian hodi lori ba iha Planta LNG iha Darwin ne\u2019eb\u00e9 kompa\u00f1ia sira hare katak baratu liu tanba la presiza kustu kapit\u00e1l no investimentu atu dada kadoras ida ne\u2019e foun no la presiza atu harii tan planta LNG ida ne\u2019eb\u00e9 foun. Conoco Philips iha nia interese tanba iha nia asoens iha Planta LNG Darwin no m\u00f3s nud\u00e1r operador iha kampu Bayu Undan.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Opsaun segundu mak LNG ida ne\u2019eb\u00e9 namlele iha tasi leten ne\u2019eb\u00e9 sei presiza planta LNG ida ne\u2019eb\u00e9 foun liu maib\u00e9 la presiza kadoras ida ne\u2019eb\u00e9 naruk no bele hatuur besik liu iha kampu ne\u2019e nia leten.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Dezde tinan hat nulu liu ba, aut\u00f3r ind\u00fastria hah\u00fa ona halo estudu kona-ba oins\u00e1 in\u00edsia planta LNG namlele ida. Iha tinan sira atu besik remata noventa, mundu konsege iha fasilidade ba planta produsaun ba LNG ida namlele.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

No iha tinan noventa nia klaran kompa\u00f1ia Royal Dutch Shell ne\u2019eb\u00e9 kaer m\u00f3s asoens 27% iha Joint Venture Sunrise nian dezenvolve ona nia teknolojia rasik ba LNG namlele ida ho funsaun multi-tipu ba nia projetu sira ne\u2019eb\u00e9 iha inklui iha Timor-Leste.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Dezde iha tinan 2010, Shell nia teknolojia ba LNG planta ida ne\u2019eb\u00e9 namlele mak sai tiha JV Sunrise nia opsaun atu uza ba Greater Sunrise. Shell nia interese ida ne\u2019e m\u00f3s sei sai obst\u00e1kulu ida ba Timor-Leste atu alkansa ita nia objetivu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Opsaun LNG mai iha rai maran Timor-Leste ne\u2019e sei sai diskusaun iha Joint venture nia laran, espesialmente tanba interese neg\u00f3siu hosi parseiru sira seluk nian. Timor-Leste tenke konvense sira seluk, no \u201ckonvense\u201d iha pratika neg\u00f3siu ne\u2019e la\u2019os ho ibun mamuk, maib\u00e9 bele ka lae Timor-Leste asegura parseiru sira seluk nia lakon? Ka Timor-Leste bele selu kustu investimentu sira seluk ne\u2019eb\u00e9 halo sira halo osan barak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Risku ida ne\u2019eb\u00e9 Timor-Leste bele konsidera mak kuandu ita bele kobre hotu kustu sira ne\u2019eb\u00e9 loloos membru Joint Venture seluk bele kobre m\u00f3s, ne\u2019e sei hamenus Timor-Leste nia benef\u00edsiu, maib\u00e9 aumenta parte seluk nia lukru.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Dalan atu evita mak, presiza kalkula loloos kapit\u00e1l investimentu hira mak Timor-Leste sei gasta kuandu dada kadoras mai iha Timor-Leste, refining margin hira mak Timor-Leste sei hetan hosi kada barr\u00edl kompara ho lukru petrol\u00edferu karik mina-rai ho gas ne\u2019e fan tuir Upstream de\u2019it, inklui kompara ho konseitu dezenvolvimentu seluk.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

TimorGAP, EP, mak reprezenta estadu no selu de\u2019it dividen no taxa ba estadu.<\/p>\n

Kuandu Timor-Leste konsege duni sosa asoens ne\u2019e, kompa\u00f1ia mina-rai Timor-Leste, TimorGAP,EP bele ka sei representa duni estadu Timor-Leste kuandu hetan ona aprovasaun hosi Konsellu Administrasaun TimorGAP, EP nian hanesan haktuir iha Artigu 9 hosi DECRETO-LEI N.\u00ba 31 \/2011 de 27 de Julho kona-ba TIMOR GAP – TIMOR G\u00c1S & PETR\u00d3LEO, E.P.<\/p>\n

Maske partisipasaun sira ne\u2019e nud\u00e1r parte hosi lori TimorGAP,EP ba esperi\u00e9nsia ida ne\u2019eb\u00e9 boot hamutuk ho kompa\u00f1ia mina-rai sira ne\u2019eb\u00e9 iha esperi\u00e9nsia naruk iha ind\u00fastria petrol\u00edferu nian, maib\u00e9 buat importante liu ba Timor-Leste atu konsidera mak kapasidade finanseiru no m\u00f3s teknolojia no esperi\u00e9nsia Timor GAP, EP nian iha ind\u00fastria ekstrativa, espesialmente iha atividade \u201cOffshore-tasi laran\u201d ne\u2019eb\u00e9 kompleksu. TimorGAP,EP nia esperi\u00e9nsia envolvimentu iha atividade Offshore liu hosi nia subsidiariu TIMOR GAP PSC 11-106, Unipessoal, Lda ne\u2019eb\u00e9 mak sai parte ida hosi Joint Venture iha JPDA 11-106 ne\u2019eb\u00e9 ENI mak sai operador ho INPEX.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Dezde 2012 to 2017, TimorGAP, EP, simu ona millaun $39 hosi Orsamentu Jer\u00e1l Estadu atu finansia nia atividade. Pelu kontr\u00e1riu, rendimentu ne\u2019eb\u00e9 TimorGAP hetan hosi nia investimentu ida ne\u2019e seidauk bele rekopera despeza estadu ida ne\u2019e. Figura sira ne\u2019e reprezenta hela katak Timor GAP presiza hadi\u2019ak nia planu neg\u00f3siu nian kuandu envolve ona diretamente iha Joint Venture nian nune\u2019e bele aumenta valor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Kuandu TimorGAP, EP reprezenta ona estadu iha Joint Venture Sunrise nian, TimorGAP sei selu dividen no taxa hosi nia lukru mai iha estadu. Montante dividen no taxa ne\u2019eb\u00e9 mak TimorGAP sei selu mai iha estadu Timor-Leste ne\u2019e depende ba rendimentu netto ne\u2019eb\u00e9 kompa\u00f1ia ne\u2019e sei halo. Dividen sei boot liu kuandu osan investimentu ne\u2019e ki\u2019ik no retornu as. Maib\u00e9 kuandu kustu investimentu nian as tebes, dividen m\u00f3s sei menus, inklui taxa ne\u2019eb\u00e9 sei selu mai iha estadu m\u00f3s menus tanba lukru menus. Dividen katak porsaun hosi lukru ne\u2019eb\u00e9 kompa\u00f1ia ida selu ba estadu Timor-Leste\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Iha kazu sosa asoens ConocoPhillips nian ne\u2019e, maske ne\u2019e nud\u00e1r pasu di\u2019ak ida, maib\u00e9 Timor-Leste tenke kuidadu hodi sura nia kapit\u00e1l investimentu nian ba projetu Sunrise nian, espesialmente kuandu prefere atu hili opsaun ida entre opsaun tolu ne\u2019eb\u00e9 iha ona hanesan dada kadoras mai Timor-Leste, dada kadoras ba Darwin no halo planta LNG ida namlele.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Net Present Value (NPV) no Internal Rate of Return (IRR) mak bele determina presu asoens ne\u2019e baratu ka karun<\/p>\n

Maske iha peritu no pol\u00edtiku balu iha rai laran hateten katak valor $350 miloens ne\u2019eb\u00e9 Timor-Leste selu atu sosa asoens partisipasaun Conoco Philips nian iha Joint Venture Sunrise nian, maib\u00e9 sedu liu atu dehan ne\u2019e baratu ka karun.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Norm\u00e1lmente presu asoens ne\u2019e sura hosi Net Present Value (NPV) ba osan sira ne\u2019eb\u00e9 gasta no ekspeta atu hetan iha futuru. Kapit\u00e1l investimentu hosi Conoco Philips no cash flow ka osan sira ne\u2019eb\u00e9 ekspeta atu bele hetan mak bele determina valor ida ne\u2019e karun ka baratu liu.<\/p>\n

Infelizmente, informasaun sira kona-ba k\u00e1lkulu ida ne\u2019e la publika sai, no montante ida ne\u2019e besik atu hanesan rezultadu ida hosi negosiasaun ida ne\u2019eb\u00e9 hala\u2019o entre ekipa negosiasaun Timor-Leste ho Conoco Philips ne\u2019eb\u00e9 fasilita hosi James Rhe, na\u2019in ba kompa\u00f1ia TL Cement Lda ne\u2019eb\u00e9 iha besik tempu ne\u2019eb\u00e9 hanesan hetan kapitalizasaun millaun $50 hosi Orsamentu Jer\u00e1l Estadu 2018 ne\u2019eb\u00e9 esplika nud\u00e1r parte ida hosi partisipasaun estadu nian iha projetu Simentu iha Baucau.<\/p>\n

Iha lidun seluk, ofisi\u00e1l senior ida iha Conoco Philips hateten ba CGT-TLkatak Conoco Philips hakarak fan nia asoens iha JV Sunrise tanba razaun ekon\u00f3miku. Conoco Philips komprende katak desizaun Governu Timor-Leste nian atu dada kadoras mai iha Timor-Leste nud\u00e1r desizaun pol\u00edtika ida ne\u2019eb\u00e9 afeta tebes ba valor komersi\u00e1l ne\u2019eb\u00e9 kompa\u00f1ia ne\u2019e hetan.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Conoco Philips hare katak kuandu dada kadoras mai iha Timor-Leste, maizumenus retornu ne\u2019eb\u00e9 ekspeta atu hetan ne\u2019e maizumenus 7% hosi kapit\u00e1l investimentu biliaun $15.621 sei labele halo sira halo lukru tanba norm\u00e1lmente Conoco Philips sei ba empresta osan atu halo investimentu ho nia funan maizumenus 8 ka 9%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nune\u2019e, hosi perspetiva ekon\u00f3miku Conoco Philips prefere hodi bele ba fan nia asoens duke mant\u00e9n iha konsorsiu. Karik Conoco Philips mak hasa\u2019e tiha valor ne\u2019e liu fali millaun $350, Timor-Leste sei sosa tanba obsesaun boot ba dada kadoras mai Timor-Leste.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Woodside nia pozisaun\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

To ohin loron Woodside ho nia parseiru seluk hanesan Shell no Osaka Gas seidauk foti desizaun ida formal kona-ba tranzasaun ida ne\u2019e. Maske iha kualk\u00e9r Joint Venture ida, iha regra ida kona-ba direitu de prefer\u00e9nsia atu sosa asoens parseiru ida kuandu membru Joint Venture ida deside atu fan nia asoens partisipasaun nian.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Iha Outubru nia klaran, Chefe Woodside, Peter Coleman hateten katak maske Timor-Leste sosa ona asoens hosi partisipasaun Conoco Philips nian iha Joint Venture Sunrise, maib\u00e9 Woodside sei prefere dezenvolvimentu kampu Greater Sunrise nian ba Upstream ida ne\u2019eb\u00e9 ketak hosi Downstream. Deklarasaun operador ne\u2019eb\u00e9 lad\u00fan fiar ba valor ekon\u00f3miku hosi dezenvolvimentu Sunrise tuir prefer\u00e9nsia Timor-Leste nian ba dada kadoras Sunrise nian mai iha rai maran kosta s\u00fal Timor-Leste nian.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Deklarasaun Woodside nian ne\u2019e sei sai obst\u00e1kulu boot ida ba Timor-Leste hodi asegura valor ekon\u00f3miku Sunrise nian ba benef\u00edsiu Timor-Leste. Parlamentu Nasional no \u00f3rgaun soberania sira seluk presiza husu ba TimorGAP,EP atu justifika valor ekon\u00f3miku sira ne\u2019e liu hosi analiza ba kustu no benef\u00edsiu sira nian ida ne\u2019eb\u00e9 profundu no kle\u2019an.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

*Ativista RENETIL no Analista Orsament\u00e1l ba CGT-TL, Membru Concelho Consultativo do Fundo Petrolifero (CCFP)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By\u00a0Juvinal Dias*\u00a0 Analiza ida ne\u2019e nud\u00e1r kontribuisaun idea balu ba publiku kona-ba planu Governu nian hodi sosa asoens Conoco Philips nian iha Joint Venture Sunrise nian hamutuk 30%. No espera katak opiniaun ne\u2019e bele ajuda p\u00fabliku hodi bele iha ko\u00f1esimentu kona-ba oportunidade no risku sira hosi planu ida ne\u2019e ba interese Timor-Leste nian.\u00a0 Atu alkansa […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":895,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"amp_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-894","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analisa"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/neonmetin.info\/buletin\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/894","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/neonmetin.info\/buletin\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/neonmetin.info\/buletin\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neonmetin.info\/buletin\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neonmetin.info\/buletin\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=894"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/neonmetin.info\/buletin\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/894\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":896,"href":"https:\/\/neonmetin.info\/buletin\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/894\/revisions\/896"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neonmetin.info\/buletin\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/895"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/neonmetin.info\/buletin\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=894"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neonmetin.info\/buletin\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=894"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neonmetin.info\/buletin\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=894"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}