{"id":904,"date":"2018-11-30T06:21:24","date_gmt":"2018-11-30T06:21:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/neonmetin.info\/buletin\/?p=904"},"modified":"2018-12-06T07:26:54","modified_gmt":"2018-12-06T07:26:54","slug":"kuandu-orsamentu-estadu-2019-fo-ameasa-ba-ekonomia-timor-leste","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/neonmetin.info\/buletin\/2018\/11\/30\/kuandu-orsamentu-estadu-2019-fo-ameasa-ba-ekonomia-timor-leste\/","title":{"rendered":"Kuandu Orsamentu Estadu 2019 F\u00f3 Ameasa ba Ekonomia Timor-Leste"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Juvinal Dias*<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Artigu ida ne\u2019e nud\u00e1r rezumu hosi submisaun Core Group Transparency-Timor-Leste \u00a0(CGT-TL) ba Parlamentu Nasional kona-ba orsamentu jer\u00e1l estadu 2019 ho objetivu atu ajuda p\u00fabliku hodi komprende oins\u00e1 orsamentu ne\u2019e f\u00f3 implikasaun ba ekonomia Timor-Leste.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Fundu Petrol\u00edferu la aumenta sae tanba levantamentu sempre boot liu fali RSE<\/h2>\n

Dezde estabelesidu iha 2005, Fundu Petrol\u00edferu sai tiha fontes prinsip\u00e1l iha ita nia orsamentu annual. Maske preambulu Fundu Petrol\u00edferu rasik mensiona katak rendimentu petrol\u00edferu sira ne\u2019eb\u00e9 hetan ne\u2019e atu harii\u00a0 \u201creservas financeiras obrigat\u00f3rias\u201d ne\u2019eb\u00e9 bele uza ba benef\u00edsiu jerasaun ohin no futuru, maib\u00e9 pol\u00edtika orsament\u00e1l tinan-tinan ne\u2019eb\u00e9 aprezenta hosi Governu f\u00f3 ameasa ba prinsipiu kriasaun rezerva ida ne\u2019e.<\/p>\n

Kada tinan Governu besik sempre foti liu Rendimentu Sustent\u00e1vel Estimativa (RSE). Iha proposta Orsamentu 2019 ida ne\u2019e, Governu hakarak atu halo levantamentu millaun $1.541.4 hosi Fundu Petrol\u00edferu, montante\u00a0 ida ne\u2019eb\u00e9 boot liu besik dala tolu kompara ho nivel RSE ne\u2019eb\u00e9 determina tiha iha nivel millaun $529 ba tinan 2019. Konseku\u00e9nsia hosi ne\u2019e sei lori hela Timor-Leste hodi enfrakeza nia Fundu Petrol\u00edferu rasik iha futuru, liu-liu kuandu kampu mina-rai ne\u2019eb\u00e9 f\u00f3 hela osan mai ita agora ne\u2019e maran ona, no laiha kampu mina-rai seluk ne\u2019eb\u00e9 bele f\u00f3 reseita mai Timor-Leste. Tuir loloos Governu rasik hare ona konseku\u00e9nsia ne\u2019e, hanesan projeta hela katak Fundu Petrol\u00edferu sei tun ba iha Biliaun $15.9 iha fin de tinan 2019, maske to iha fin de Setembru 2018, ita nia Fundu iha hela biliaun $17.155. Infelizmente ita la aumenta maib\u00e9 diminui tiha.<\/p>\n

Hosi 2019 to iha 2023, Governu planeia hela atu halo despeza orsament\u00e1l hamutuk biliaun $9.565, no entre montante ida ne\u2019e Billaun $8.323.30 sei mai hosi Fundu Petrol\u00edferu rasik. Enkuantu reseita hosi fan mina-rai nian ne\u2019eb\u00e9 Timor-Leste atu hetan iha periodu ida ne\u2019eb\u00e9 hanesan ne\u2019e iha de\u2019it biliaun $1.223.60, no investimentu Fundu Petrol\u00edferu sei hetan de\u2019it biliaun $2.778.70. Karik laiha set\u00f3r ekonomia seluk mak dezenvolve hodi prod\u00fas reseita ba substituisaun rendimentu petrol\u00edferu iha futuru, Timor-Leste sei enfrenta defisit fisk\u00e1l ida ne\u2019eb\u00e9 boot liu iha futuru, espesialmente karik Greater Sunrise seidauk bele dezenvolve. Ita hotu imajina tok karik Timor-Leste la\u2019o sem Fundu Petrol\u00edferu?<\/p>\n

<\/a>Sosa asoens partisipasaun iha JV Sunrise sei krexe Orsamentu 2019<\/h2>\n

Maske Proposta orsamentu ne\u2019e deside ona montante iha biliaun $1.827, maib\u00e9 montante ne\u2019e sei aumenta tan ba biliaun rua resin dolar Amerika, hafoin planu ambisiozu Governu nian hodi sosa tan asoens partisipasaun kompa\u00f1ia SHELL iha Joint Venture (JV) Sunrise ho valor millaun $300 foin daudauk hafoin Governu aprezenta tiha ona nia proposta orsament\u00e1l ba Parlamentu Nasional. Planu foun ida ne\u2019e sei halo levantamentu hosi Fundu Petrol\u00edferu nian m\u00f3s bele sae to iha nivel biliaun $1.841.4.<\/p>\n

Planu sosa asoens partisipasaun kompa\u00f1ia Conoco Philips no SHELL nian sei halo Timor-Leste nud\u00e1r na\u2019in maioritariu iha konsorsiu Sunrise nian ne\u2019eb\u00e9 sei halo Timor-Leste hodi bele goza m\u00f3s \u201ccompany take\u201d hosi lukru fan nia mina-rai no gas Sunrise ne\u2019eb\u00e9 Joint Venture sei halo. No karik JV sira ne\u2019e halo lukru, entaun Timor-Leste nia Fundu Petrol\u00edferu sei hetan aumenta osan hosi dividend ne\u2019eb\u00e9 TimorGAP,EP sei selu, inklui m\u00f3s lori TimorGAP,EP iha esperi\u00e9nsia boot ida iha ind\u00fastria petrol\u00edferu (karik nia mak sei reprezenta Timor-Leste nia parte iha Joint Venture).<\/p>\n

Maske nune\u2019e, Timor-Leste m\u00f3s sei leva responsabilidade maioritaria ba risku no kustu investimentu sira ne\u2019eb\u00e9 sei halo. Dividend ne\u2019eb\u00e9 TIMORGAP, EP sei selu ne\u2019e depende ba kustu investimentu no kustu operasion\u00e1l ne\u2019eb\u00e9 sei halo durante periodu produsaun kampu Greater Sunrise nian. Keta haluha, katak Dezde 2012 to 2017, TimorGAP, EP, simu ona millaun $39 hosi Orsamentu Jer\u00e1l Estadu atu finansia nia atividade, nee seidauk inklui millaun balu tan ne\u2019eb\u00e9 aloka hosi Orsamentu 2018. Pelu kontr\u00e1riu, rendimentu ne\u2019eb\u00e9 TimorGAP,EP hetan hosi nia investimentu ida ne\u2019e seidauk bele rekopera despeza estadu hirak ne\u2019e. Figura hanesan ne\u2019e reprezenta hela katak TimorGAP, EP, presiza hadi\u2019ak nia planu neg\u00f3siu kuandu envolve ona diretamente iha Joint Venture nian nune\u2019e bele aumenta valor.<\/a>[1]<\/sup><\/p>\n

Buat sosa no fan asoens partisipasaun ne\u2019e nud\u00e1r buat pratika neg\u00f3siu baibain ida ne\u2019eb\u00e9 akontese iha merkadu ind\u00fastria ekstrativa nian. Buat sosa no fan asoens ne\u2019e depende ba oportunidade no valor sira ne\u2019eb\u00e9 parte ruma ekspeta atu hetan iha futuru, katak bainhira kampu ida labele ona f\u00f3 serteza ba nia asionista atu halo osan, asionista ne\u2019e sei fan nia asoens atu evita hodi labele lakon nia valor osan, basa valor real osan ohin loron ne\u2019e sei di\u2019ak liu ho valor osan iha futuru. Ba kazu Sunrise, Conoco Philips no Shell hakarak fan sira nia asoens partisipasaun nian tanba sira la fiar katak konseitu dezenvolvimentu ida ne\u2019eb\u00e9 Timor-Leste defende durante ne\u2019e sei halo sira halo osan kompara ho sira nia prefer\u00e9nsia rasik atu lori kadoras ba Darwin ka LNG ida ne\u2019eb\u00e9 namlele.<\/p>\n

La\u2019\u00f3s buat segredu ida katak ind\u00fastria petrol\u00edferu ne\u2019e nud\u00e1r ind\u00fastria ho kar\u00e1kter teknolojia karun no sufistikadu, mai ho risku ida ne\u2019eb\u00e9 as ba nia finansiamentu no ambient\u00e1l nian, no m\u00f3s nia retornu ida ne\u2019eb\u00e9 m\u00f3s volatile tanba depende ba iha inserteza hosi merkadu petr\u00f3leu nian ne\u2019eb\u00e9 laiha ema ida mak bele halo prediksaun.<\/p>\n

Tanba Governu inklui ona planu sosa asoens ne\u2019e iha Proposta Orsamentu Estadu 2019, espesialmente asoens partisipasaun Conoco Philips nian ne\u2019e, entaun dalan ida ne\u2019eb\u00e9 di\u2019ak liu tan atu bele asegura katak planu ida ne\u2019e sei f\u00f3 vantajen ba iha Timor-Leste mak Parlamentu Nasional tenke ezije ba Governu hodi aprezenta \u201cSupporting Document\u201d ne\u2019eb\u00e9 tenke esplisitamente esplika sai planu neg\u00f3siu sira iha relasaun ho sosa asoens partisipasaun Conoco Philips no SHELL nian iha Join Venture Sunrise. Lad\u00fan furak bainhira Parlamentu Nasional aprova montante boot ida ba investimentu ida ne\u2019eb\u00e9 boot maib\u00e9 seidauk hatene informasaun sira ne\u2019e ho detailladu.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Reseita dom\u00e9stika seidauk bele sae atu substitui Rendimentu Petroliferas<\/h2>\n

Buat krusial seluk ba Timor-Leste nia futuru mak ita nia rendimentu dom\u00e9stika besik la sae maka\u2019as tinan-tinan. Dezde restorasaun independ\u00e9nsia nian to ohin loron, reseita dom\u00e9stika nunka mais ultrapasa nivel millaun $200 kada tinan no projesaun ba tinan lima oin mai m\u00f3s sei la ultrapasa millaun $240 kada tinan maske despeza sira iha tinan lima oin mai sei sa\u2019e maka\u2019as no kampu Bayu Undan sei maran.<\/p>\n

Set\u00f3r eletrisidade nud\u00e1r ezemplu ida hosi investimentu dom\u00e9stika ho kustu as ne\u2019eb\u00e9 hala\u2019o hosi Governu dezde tinan 2009. Durante ne\u2019e, set\u00f3r ne\u2019e kontribui liu metade hosi total rendimentu dom\u00e9stiku ne\u2019eb\u00e9 Timor-Leste koleta hosi \u201ctaxas no Enkargus\u201d maizumenus $30 miloens kada tinan. Maske nune\u2019e, ita labele haluha katak montante ba kapit\u00e1l despeza ba set\u00f3r ne\u2019e maizumenus iha biliaun $1.2 no kustu operasion\u00e1l iha nivel $100 miloens por an\u00f3, ne\u2019eb\u00e9 halo hela set\u00f3r ne\u2019e kontinua moris iha defisit nia laran.<\/p>\n

Set\u00f3r agrikultura no ind\u00fastria prosesamentu ai han ne\u2019eb\u00e9 loloos iha pot\u00e9nsia boot iha Timor-Leste seidauk bele hetan atensaun hosi Governu atu bele sai nud\u00e1r set\u00f3r ida hodi substitui rendimentu petrol\u00edferu nian. Alokasaun orsament\u00e1l ne\u2019eb\u00e9 tinan-tinan sempre la liu 2% halo tiha set\u00f3r importante ne\u2019e abandonadu tiha. Iha parte seluk peskas, pequaria m\u00f3s labele f\u00f3 kontribuisaun maka\u2019as ba rendimentu dom\u00e9stika maske merkadu no pot\u00e9nsia rai laran f\u00f3 apoiu tebes. Ho neglijensia ida ne\u2019e, Timor-Leste tenke depende ba ai han sira hosi rai li\u2019ur no halo tiha Timor-Leste nia depend\u00e9nsia ba importasaun, inklui hamenus tiha rendimentu dom\u00e9stika rasik.<\/p>\n

Aleinde ne\u2019e, set\u00f3r Turizmu m\u00f3s seidauk bele kontribui maka\u2019as maske Timor-Leste iha fatin turistiku sira ne\u2019eb\u00e9 bele m\u00f3s atrai ema atu mai hare. Anualmente, taxa hosi visa enjeral kontribui de\u2019it $3 miloens no ida ne\u2019e bele aumenta kuandu Timor-Leste bele hadi\u2019ak nia set\u00f3r turizmu ho di\u2019ak liu tan, inklui aplika tarefa ba vizitante sira iha area turistika. Maib\u00e9 infrastrutura hanesan dalan, hariis fatin, bee m\u00f3s, fatin deskansa no seluk tan atu hafasil asesu mak bele determina kontribuisaun set\u00f3r ida ne\u2019e ba ekonomia dom\u00e9stika.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Presiza Ink\u00e9ritu Parlament\u00e1r no investigasaun ba projetu Annex 12 no 13<\/h2>\n

Iha proposta OJE 2019 ida ne\u2019e, iha Annex 12 no 13 Livru 3 A kona-ba Fundu Infrastrutura nian, Governu propoin atu aloka millaun $27.654 hodi selu d\u00edvida ba projetu 135 ne\u2019eb\u00e9 ajudika hosi Komisaun Administrasaun Fundu Infrastrutura (CAFI) iha 2017 ba reabilita estrada sira no m\u00f3s millaun $3.150 atu selu ba reabilitasaun ponte 8. Espesialmente ba projetu estrada nian ne\u2019e, Governu sei aloka millaun $231.73 iha 2020 no millaun $37.2 iha tinan 2021 atu bele selu hotu valor projetu ne\u2019e ne\u2019eb\u00e9 nia valor hamutuk millaun $331.741.<\/p>\n

Iha Agostu 2018, kuandu Governu aprezenta proposta Orsamentu 2018 nian ba Parlamentu, CGT-TL husu atu Parlamentu Nasional in\u00edsia ink\u00e9ritu Parlament\u00e1r no investigasaun ba projetu emerj\u00e9nsia sira ne\u2019eb\u00e9 ajudika tiha iha tinan sira anterior. Valor total projetu sira ne\u2019e besik to iha montante $400 miloens. Ideia hosi ejij\u00e9nsia ida ne\u2019e mak hakarak atu Parlamentu Nasional hala\u2019o nia funsaun hodi fiskaliza tiha planu ne\u2019e hodi nune\u2019e bele evita korrupsaun no m\u00f3s salva tiha despeza estadu nian.<\/p>\n

\u201cBainhira Governu labele kontrola ona nia despeza sira ne\u2019e tuir regra loloos ba kategoria sira ne\u2019eb\u00e9 iha, Timor-Leste sei lakon valor osan barak tan, tanba gasta osan sem iha avaliasaun sira ne\u2019eb\u00e9 transparente no kontavel\u201d no \u201cdalan ida ne\u2019eb\u00e9 prudente liu ba Parlamentu atu halo molok aprova osan ba selu projetu sira ne\u2019e mak, tenke halo verifikasaun ba projetu sira ne\u2019e hodi hatene merese ka lae projetu ne\u2019eb\u00e9 implementa ona ne\u2019e tama kategoria necessidades urgentes e imprevistas<\/em><\/strong>ka lae, hodi nune\u2019e ita bele salva osan povu nian ka uza osan povu nian atu f\u00f3 benef\u00edsiu duni ba povu sira duke benefisia ema elite ka kompa\u00f1ia na\u2019in sira de\u2019it, inklui ajuda tiha ema riku sira hodi evita an hosi kontabilidade no responsabilidade kompa\u00f1ia sira hodi la kumpre regra no lei aprovizionamentu sira ne\u2019eb\u00e9 prevaleze iha Timor-Leste. \u2026\u2026..<\/p>\n

Infelizmente Parlamentu Nasional la konsege hala\u2019o ink\u00e9ritu parlament\u00e1r ida ne\u2019e, karik tanba tempu mak menus, maib\u00e9 ba orsamentu 2019, ami kontinua enkoraja ba Parlamentu Nasional atu halo fiskalizasaun ida ne\u2019eb\u00e9 di\u2019ak liu, karik rekursu Parlamentu nian menus, ita boot sira bele husu apoiu hosi investigad\u00f3r Komisaun Anti Korrupsaun nian ka investigad\u00f3r sira hosi Minist\u00e9riu P\u00fabliku nian.<\/p>\n

<\/a>[1]https:\/\/neonmetin.info\/buletin\/2018\/11\/20\/oinsa-tl-bele-sukat-oportunidade-hosi-sosa-asoens-conoco-philips-nian-iha-jv-sunrise\/<\/a><\/p>\n

*Ativista RENETIL no Analista Orsament\u00e1l ba CGT-TL, Membru Concelho Consultativo do Fundo Petrolifero (CCFP)<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Juvinal Dias* Artigu ida ne\u2019e nud\u00e1r rezumu hosi submisaun Core Group Transparency-Timor-Leste \u00a0(CGT-TL) ba Parlamentu Nasional kona-ba orsamentu jer\u00e1l estadu 2019 ho objetivu atu ajuda p\u00fabliku hodi komprende oins\u00e1 orsamentu ne\u2019e f\u00f3 implikasaun ba ekonomia Timor-Leste. Fundu Petrol\u00edferu la aumenta sae tanba levantamentu sempre boot liu fali RSE Dezde estabelesidu iha 2005, Fundu Petrol\u00edferu […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":895,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"amp_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-904","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analisa"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t